How to analyze and select the market First Point Scorer (incl. Overtime) in basketball

Analyzing and selecting the First Point Scorer (including overtime) in basketball involves a combination of factors that can influence which player is most likely to score the first point in a game. Here’s a breakdown of the key elements you should consider when making your analysis:

1. Starting Lineups

• Who is starting? The player who starts the game is the one with the highest likelihood of scoring first. The first possession is often dictated by which team wins the tip-off and what play is run.
• Star Players: Star players are more likely to get the first shot, especially if they are the focal point of the offense.

2. Tip-Off Dynamics

• Team with the Tip-Off: The team that wins the tip-off has the first possession. This gives them an immediate advantage in selecting who will take the first shot.
• Positioning and Play Design: Teams often run specific plays to get their best player the ball early. Pay attention to whether the team will run a set play for a particular player after the tip.

3. Player Roles & Playing Style

• Scoring Role: Some players are more likely to score early in games because they are the primary option for their team (e.g., high-volume shooters, stars). Look at who the primary scoring threats are for each team.
• Position: Guards (especially shooting guards and point guards) are often the first to score, particularly if they are great at shooting jump shots or driving to the basket. For centers or power forwards, it may depend on the style of play, but they could get an early score if it's an easy dunk or post move.
• First Play Likelihood: Some teams will design the first play to get their best scorer involved early, such as a pick-and-roll or a quick shot. Look for trends in how teams open games.

4. Recent Performance and Trends

• Recent First-Scorer Trends: Review past games to see if certain players have a history of scoring first. Some players are more aggressive early on, while others might wait for the flow of the game to develop.
• Matchup Analysis: Consider how the opposing defense might affect the likelihood of a player scoring first. For example, if a team struggles against a particular type of player (e.g., defending against perimeter shooters), the corresponding player might be more likely to score first.

5. Injury Report

• Injuries or Resting Players: A key player being out or injured can shift the balance of who is likely to score first. If a star player is unavailable, a secondary scorer might step up to take on a larger role.
• Minutes Played and Fatigue: Consider if any player is playing fewer minutes or coming off an injury, as they may be less aggressive early in the game.

6. Team Strategy

• Pace of Play: Teams with a fast pace of play might get more possessions early, increasing the chances for an early score. On the other hand, slower teams may rely more on half-court sets, which could delay the first basket.
• Defensive vs. Offensive Strategy: Some teams may prioritize defense and slow down the game, which could affect the timing of the first score. An aggressive team on offense will likely score first faster.

7. Betting Market/ Odds

• Odds and Market Trends: If you’re betting on First Point Scorer (FPS), keep track of the betting odds. If a player has significantly shorter odds than others, it indicates that sportsbooks or the market believes they are more likely to score the first point.
• Betting Patterns: You can also track how often certain players are picked by others in FPS markets and how that aligns with actual outcomes.

8. Overtime Considerations

• Possession in Overtime: Overtime starts with a 50/50 chance of possession, so the player who gets the ball first in overtime could be crucial. Some teams tend to run plays for their star players in overtime to secure quick points.
• Game Flow in Overtime: Analyze which players have been hot throughout the game and are likely to get the first touch in overtime. The player who has been dominant late in the game is more likely to continue that form.

9. Statistics and Historical Data

• Player Scoring Distribution: Review how often players score first in recent games. Some players consistently get the first point, while others may take a backseat early.
• Field Goals Made: Players who have high field goal percentages and take a lot of shots early in games (like shooting guards or small forwards) are prime candidates to score first.
  
  

  To select this market, kindly follow the steps below:

  1. select the game, for example Indiana pacers vs Brooklyn nets
  2. select the section " player"

  
  
  3. kindly scroll down and select First Point Scorer (Incl. Overtime), open the market and select the player you want.